Round 12/13

[Kel Gleason]

This has been such a crazy round/night I'll update later I guess

[Carlos Bernard]

Looking forward to hearing about it!

[Kel Gleason]

Coming in to the round I felt that Chris needed to go. It was clear. He made a seemingly dumb move and was going to pay for it.

But the more I think about it the more sure I am that I will be the next casualty if he does leave. I need him as a shield. It just makes sense that Laura, Julia & Zane would team up and shift the game again.

I'm working with Laura since Allie was voted off, but I don't trust that she wouldn't turn on me. Also, my relationship with Julia is a non-existent one and our conversations are always awfully awkward.

Also, Ashley showed me a conversation with Laura where the latter basically proposed a Laura/Ashley/Julia final 3, hence why I think I would go even before Ashley.


I would need Julia to go to avoid another potential game shift.


The other compromising alternative is to vote Zane out to weaken Chris. Since we need Chris on our side we can't blindside him, so we would have to tell Chris we are voting Zane - which can backfire in so many ways. Chris said he was okay with voting Zane out but I'm not sure I buy it.

Then there's always the risk that Chris turns on me already this round. It was my biggest motivation to get him off immediately, but I think the risk of him turning on me this round is lower than Laura turning on me next round.




A final 5 with me, Ashley, Laura, Chris & Zane just sounds so more tempting than a final 5 with me, Ashley, Laura, Julia & Zane. Way more possibilites.


So even though I'm not sure, I'm leaning towards wanting Julia gone.


Instead I want Chris to go next round or the one after. The problem is he can so easily win every immunity till the finals. The last challenge may be an endurance though, and Chris did say [in Sausage land] that he never went more than 7 hours in one of those.





If Chris, Zane, Julia & Laura ends up coming together somehow, and they vote me off I'm gonna be so annoyed. At myself. The motivations Chris presents to go further with me & Ashley is actually a little vague :


Kle Gleason (05:52:40):
Yes, did you explain your reasoning as to why yoou'd vote out your brother?
chris daugherty (05:53:36):
well there's zero chance him and i make the end together and we both know that
chris daugherty (05:54:03):
at F5 i want you and ashley to know that i'll be okay with it
chris daugherty (05:54:27):
like i want you two to feel comfortable so i'm willing to vote him out to prove that i'm with you guys to the end
chris daugherty (05:55:13):
and if you don't fully trust that i'd vote him out, it won't matter because you guys will be able to take him out with or without my vote
chris daugherty (05:55:33):
i just don't want you guys to get paranoid that i won't wanna vote for him
chris daugherty (05:55:57):
plus i think it would give him great pleasure to vote me out of a game (:


I think he "needs" me though. If he votes me out now he will for sure go next round, barring an immunity win.

...



Laura just PM:ed me. She's gonna keep bugging me about voting Chris off all the way to the deadline (I guess if she doesn't it's a huge warning sign that something is up?), and my reasoning to not do it won't exactly be stellar.




what is a kle to do

[Kel Gleason]

Okay, so did I make a dumb move?

It may come down to Chris winning or losing the next immunity challenge, and if a brother is willing to vote out a brother.

I want to vote Chris out this round. Ashley probably won't be okay with it which means I'd have to go to Zane for the third vote. Is he willing to vote out Chris? I don't know but he should be if he want a shot to win the game – I have to pitch him a final two on the grounds that we can't beat anyone else in a final.

If Chris wins immunity it screws everything up, and I realize it's very likely he will. I just didn't feel comfortable going to the final five with Julia in the mix. Everyone left I can work with on some level.

[Kel Gleason]

Well that sucked! Those 10 seconds Zane lost to Chris could be the 10 most important seconds in the entire game. This makes everything about 150 times harder.



...



Everyone is telling me Zane should go. I'm not sure it's in my best interest, and I did make a final 2 deal with him.

...

So I have three viable options:


The passive way. Go along with the plan to vote out Zane, and be true to the final 3 deal with Chris/Ashley.


The crazy move. Tell Laura & Zane about that final 3 deal and suggest a new final 3 between us where we vote out Ashley.


The middle road. Try getting people to vote out Laura instead of Zane.


...


What will maximize my winning chances and what will have me sent home this very round?

[Kel Gleason]

Unfortunately none of the options are good /: Chris/Zane needs to be split up.

[Kel Gleason]

So.

I have a general deal with Laura, with her claiming she's 100% loyal to me.

Then I have a deal with Ashley. Even though we haven't said the words ”I'll take you the final 2”, all our strategy talk nowadays is about making it to the end together.

And so there's my final 2 deal with Zane.

Tonight I told Zane I'm voting Laura and I told Laura I'm voting Zane. Ashley belongs a level up because she knows about me telling them both this.

Ashley wants Zane to go though, cause it makes more sense for her game to go to the end with me and Chris - where she will almost certainly be the winner.

I on the other hand feel like the only one I can beat in the end is Zane (especially if I don't make a move and am perceived as sleeping to the end), but I can't tell Ashley about it for obvious reasons. I tried to convince Ashley we should vote Laura out over Zane but the only way it makes sense is for my personal benefits. If we're to go to the end with each other, clearly Zane is the best person to vote off now.

So to keep Zane I'd have to blindside both Laura and Ashley, by voting out Laura and lying about it to Ashley. Then at final 4 we'd vote out Ashley, and at final 3 I'd try beating Chris in a possible endurance and should I do so I'd take Zane to the end.

But I have to talk to Chris to make sure he votes for Laura and that he doesn't tell Ashley about it. Otherwise it might be awkward. And he didn't even answer me last time I asked him who we're voting for. All in all it's so risky.

I'll prefer going 4th over being a 2nd place goat for sure if it comes down to it, but I don't want to screw myself over and go this round. I'd also prefer finishing 2nd due to being hated than by being perceived as useless.

On the other hand I wonder if it's possible I COULD beat someone else if I deliver a really good speech – maybe some sob story or something ),:

For all I know I could already be the boot. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see how it would benefit Chris & Laura to vote out me or Ashley. The only tribal council in the game I've felt fairly safe during was the last one – no such luck this time!


I guess I'm (unfortunately) leaning towards the safe route to vote out Zane … I mean, I have to feel really good about Chris/Zane and everything to make 'Operation: save my goat' a reality …. me and my chicken heart.

Ultimately I trust Zane the least of the trio Ashley/Laura/Zane. I really can't scorn the two people I trust the most for someone I don't trust. That's what it might come down to.


... and to think I could be dancing on roses now weren't it for ten silly seconds ...

[Kel Gleason]

Oh and I'd hate for this to turn into "the complete journal of all the moves Kel never made" , but there's a risk!