Round-to-Round Assessments & Predictions

[Cate Blanchett]

Here's where round-to-round assessments and predictions can be posted. It will be fun to revisit this at the end of the game. Please feel free to post your respective lists here whenever you see fit.

[Cate Blanchett]

Round 1

A lot has gone down this round considering that we've had two challenges, while the players have had plenty of time to mingle with each other. To be frank, I was pleasantly surprised at the captain challenge results. I wouldn't have expected Julia who till then was one of the least active players, came on and won that challenge.

The tribes were divided poorly in my opinion. If Carlos had not replaced Shii Ann with Brianna, it would have greatly affected the morale of Vireo tribe and we might even start seeing other players give up and become inactive early on in the game.

As far as the challenge went, I was rooting for Vireo, but a few of them have made fatal mistakes and allowed Elaenia to snatch the lead. Kel was too cautious for his own good when he missed out on an opening to move South and retrieve the chest, where he had to make a U-turn. Eddie unfortunately missed the entrance to the corridor that would have led him to the chest. Ashley did a double-take and took the longer route as well.

And just for the record, I find it extremely ironic that my two picks for Final Tribal Council (Eddie and Ashley) ended up forming a "dynamic-duo" alliance. I guess I just had a feeling that the both of them would work well together. I have also expected Jeff and Eddie will work together some point in the game. Jeff will probably see Chris as too much of a threat to trust him enough.

I don't think that the 5-strong alliance in Elaenia will be holding up much longer. Tarzan and Pete do not see eye-to-eye and will do what they can to get each other out before the merge. Also, Allie's target just got bigger with her visit to the prison. She's already standing out as a strong competitor in challenges, a likable social-threat and with an idol, she will be the single most threatening player in this game.

As for the tribal council, I would be surprised if anyone else other than Alicia gets voted out, which to me is rather disappointing because I was really hoping to see some "Fun Bitch" attitude that Alicia brings to the table.



Next Round's Prediction

On Elaenia, I'm predicting that Pete will take his plans on eliminating Tarzan one step further. I think that Pete will align with Keith, Brenda, Alex and Sierra to take out Tarzan. Otherwise, he'll probably try to get Allie and Laura aligned with him, but chances are he is not going to be very successful with that.

Pete may not make a move early on. He could wait till after Heidi and either Alex/Keith are voted out to make his move. By then, he would have a majority over Tarzan.

Over at Vireo, I think that Julia may be a liability in challenges especially if it's an endurance-type or live challenge. With Alicia gone, the tribe will most likely look to eliminate their second weakest link. Should they lose another challenge, Brianna or Julia will most likely be eliminated based on that rationalisation.

Many people on Vireo may not like Kel's oddity, but I think that he will continually prove his worth in challenges since he has to do more now that he's aware that he's not doing as good socially. I do understand Kel's melancholy attitude towards things, but considering that most of our players are from the States, his attitude might become a hindrance when he tries to connect socially.

On top of that, I do think that Jeff, Eddie and Ashley will establish a tighter bond with each other after this round, especially if Jeff starts to realise that Julia may not always be around and it could potentially jeopardize his game.

For the next Immunity Challenge, I am predicting that Elaenia will be sitting out Heidi, and Vireo might win this round by the skin of their teeth.

Pre-Jurors






Jurors






Final Tribal Council





Winner







My Personal Top 5 Favourites

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[Carlos Bernard]

Round 1

Not too much to talk about yet. Yes initial alliances are forming but I hope they do not hold out that long because it is setting up to be a very South Pacific esque season. As for the first boots on either tribe they are both pretty obvious and I hope they will be gotten over with because I find if the pre merge is too boring people begin to lose interest. Thankfully after Alicia and Heidi (I have kind of given up hope on her returning) seem to be the only two so that is good.


Julia and Tarzan winning captain was pretty cool! Allie was really pissed that she lost and it was so close but I think for her it was a blessing in disguise. As Chris said it would of just exposed who she was with and probably annoyed people (as Keith is annoying with Tarzan and Julia). I think the tribes split up pretty well. Blue seems kind of chaotic while Red seems more level headed with a few odd ones (yet another South Pacific comparison).

Elaenia

Elaenia is definitely Upolu. I was bored this morning while eating breakfast so I tried to compare every member of that tribe from someone from Upolu and definitely got a pretty solid result. Its far from perfect but it is definitely kind of funny how legitimate it is.

Tarzan is Coach. This should be pretty obvious. He is very overbearing and thinks he is the leader of the alliance when he may not be in as good of position as he thinks. He'll probably make it far with the alliance and heck he could make the finals because I doubt he would get many votes in the finals with this shtick.

Allie is a more social, better looking Sophie. Sophie was the brains behind the alliance. Yes she was incredibly unlikable but that entire alliance minus Brandon and Rick were. I think Allie is going to have a negative reputation by the end of this she has already been on the radar of a lot of people. At the same time she is definitely in control of the alliance and as long as the Elaenia five stays together (the jury is out on that) she is going to be fine.

Pete is definitely Albert. I really like Pete. He is near the top of my favorite people that I have cast, he seems like a nice, down to earth guy who is really excited about playing the game which is honestly my favorite kind of people to host. They aren't obsessed with figuring out who people are. At the same time I think Pete is slightly delusional on how well the game is going for him. Jeff already knows he's full of shit and telling him about the alliance might of not been the best idea. I also think if he goes to war with Tarzan that Tarzan is in a much better position than Pete is. I see Pete and Laura as a pair and Brenda and Tarzan as a pair with Allie in the middle. But at the same time Alex and Sierra are also closer to Tarzan so I think that get lead to trouble for Pete. I could see Pete ending up like JT from last season. Strong player that gets taken out right before the merge.

As for the other two in the five Laura is Brandon simply because I have no better spot to put her. I think Brandon while well liked was not taken very seriously and I do not think Laura is taken that seriously and her strategic and strength game is underrated. I compared Brenda to Rick for the sole reason that I could not remember who the fifth person in the alliance was for a solid 10 minutes. I think Brenda is going to be a decently big player in the game though so she'll lose her comparison shortly.

As for the others, Sierra is Mikayla. I think Sierra is going to create some rifts in the alliance especially looking at her most recent alliance that says Heidi and Pete are her targets. I would love to see Sierra, Keith and Brenda team up but the question would be if Brenda would go for it and if they could get Laura or Alex to go along with it. Alex is definitely Edna. The foreign person who is clinging close to Coach. Not a bad strategy and his awful character may actually not be the death of him. He seems to be evolving into someone decently competent.

Since Heidi doesn't count Keith will play the role of both Christine and Stacey. The people that hate the majority alliance and want to take them out. I really like Keith and hope he makes it to the second mutiny and hope he decides to take that mutiny. I think he could team up with Ashley and make it to the merge which could be a clusterfuck. Unfortunately I think he will be the next person to leave after Heidi but there is lots of time between now and there first Heidiless tribal council to change it up.

So I guess in conclusion I see the five of Elaenia or as Pete calls them the Prestige Worldwide alliance lasting two, maybe three rounds before collapsing. They key is how close Tarzan is with Alex. Alex thinks they are close but if Alex leaves second I could see it being Heidi, Alex, Keith then destruction instead of Heidi, Keith then destruction.

Vireo

Kind of more of the boring tribe at this point. The First Five, as they will now be known, could be pretty solid. Jeff expressed some concerns about Chris' loyalty to me on AIM but I don't think he will act on them anytime soon. Ashley is a loyal player and Jeff is probably going to stick with Ashley. Chris and Zane are going to stick together so those four are solid for sure. Julia isn't going to test the waters and make a big move, that just isn't her style so I think the only way that the First Five is going to get fractured is if Chris and Zane turn on Ashley and Jeff which I don't see happening or they all decided to dump Julia which is slightly more likely but still incredibly unlikely.

Eddie is a real wildcard for me. Eddie is a very good player and while he seems to be the sixth in that alliance I could see him moving up very quickly. I could see Him, Zane and Chris being a trio and causing problems down the road considering this tribe doesn't lose more than three challenges. Merge isn't till final 9 so I think that is a improbable goal. I think even though Eddie and Ashley have an alliance, he will soon find out that Ashley is aligned with everyone and it might blow up in her face. Ashley is one of the sweetest and nicest people you'll ever meet but I would be lying if I said I wasn't excited for a little bit of drama.

The reason it might blow up in her face is after Alicia leaves Kel and Brianna are next. Who did she (Ashley) make an alliance with recently...

SPOILER: Click to show

Kel and Brianna

Bad news bear for Ashley because Brianna can get a little pissy when she gets voted out plus who knows what Kel is going to do, which is why he's one of my favorites). On Brianna's note I felt bad watching her confessional video. He really was given the short end of the stick being a replacement, though I think not being alias hurt him more than actually being a replacement, and I really don't see a situation where he survives the next vote unless Julia's hate for Kel causes him to go ape shit.

Julia's vote for Kel makes me so happy. Especially how vicious it is. I honestly have no idea why she hates Kel so much but it is honestly great. Poor Kel though. I contemplated not having a tribal council and just having people agree to remove her but I am so happy I had a tribal council because I really hope her vote turns head. Then again it might not and might be like the mutiny that no one cares to use but then again it might and make the red tribe as intriguing as their blue counterparts.

Conclusion

Even though Alicia leaving is a very anti climatic first round, overall this turned out to be a pretty good first round. While their are core alliances on both sides there are subplots that could make the next couple of rounds once Heidi, and I may even include Brianna as an obvious vote now, leave very very interesting. My winner pick Sierra is a little shaky but I am not going to give up on that right away.

As for my personal favorites. Even though I adore everyone in the cast besides Alicia (Heidi's absent is semi justified though annoying) if I had to pick four favorites at this point they would be Pete, Kel, Ashley and Julia.

[Cate Blanchett]

Round 5

Better update this when I have the time.

So, 5 boots since. Can't say that I am surprised at how they went. Brianna was an outsider all along, Heidi should change her name to Mia, Eddie left because Vireo is in desperate need to win challenges and he has not contributed much, Pete was being overbearing and overplaying the game at too early of a stage, and Alex just never got his game back up ever since the falling out with Pete.

I was sure that either Tarzan or Pete will be an early Pre-Jury boot, and it turned out to be Pete. He rubbed many of his tribemates the wrong way and tried to be the Alpha Male of his tribe. Tarzan's slight inactivity last couple of rounds did help mellow down ill-feelings that a couple people had for him.

And may I add that Kel is like a cat with 9-lives. Every week, he seems to get by with getting off the hook and surviving TC even though he was the odd-man out going into each and every round. But if Vireo loses again, I am not sure he will survive the next tribal purely due to the fact that the other 5 are quite tight together, unless Jeff and Ashley decides to turn on Chris for being a larger strategic threat at the merge. But I don't see how that would fly. The only other likely target would be Julia, but I do feel that the alliance trusts her a lot more than Kel, and she does turn up for challenges.

Moving back to Elaenia, Sierra has definitely gotten control over the tribe right now as the power shifts from Pete and Tarzan to her and Laura. Keith, Tarzan and Allie are all in danger of leaving should they lose. I'm not entirely sure that getting rid of Pete who was a strong competitor in tribal challenges will work out for them.

Regardless, this is shaping out to be extremely exciting. One little mistake could lead almost anybody out of the game at this point.



Next Round's Prediction

Vireo definitely seems to be a strong tribe overall. Pete's departure will definitely hurt Elaenia's performance in challenges. I am not entirely sure how everyone fare in puzzles, but I do see Vireo winning this next one, sending Elaenia on a downwards spiral.

I don't think Laura, Allie or Sierra will do well in puzzles for Elaenia, while Julia and Ashley may lose points for Vireo.

Keith or Tarzan would probably leave based on how well they perform at the challenge. If Vireo loses, Kel will probably leave this round.

Pre-Jurors

Confirmed:


Missed:


Remaining Prediction:




Jurors






Final Tribal Council





Winner







My Personal Top 5 Favourites

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[Cate Blanchett]

Round 10

So, 4 rounds have passed. Keith, Brenda, Sierra and Tarzan have been voted out, continuing the "Pagong-ing" of ex-Elaenia members. Sierra killed herself by voting off Keith instead. It wasn't surprising that once Keith's gone, Sierra and Brenda followed suit.

Tarzan, Allie and Laura being the only remaining Elaenias took on Vireo in the Auction. They've suffered the worst luck ever. Allie bought a chest with a fake idol, Tarzan bought a bag of soggy rice, and Laura gets sent to jail.

Allie did try to offer up the idol to Zane and get him to flip, but to be frank, I don't think Zane would since his ally Chris isn't too happy with Tarzan. Tarzan got booted off first, but they should have kept him and voted out Allie for she is a more strategical threat than Tarzan. You could sort of predict what Tarzan would do, but not Allie. Credit goes to her for convincing them otherwise.



Next Round's Prediction

With only 8 people left, I am guessing that the previous Vireo alliance will start to crumble. Chris and Zane might want to make a move on Jeff, Ashley, Kel and Julia.

It is no longer a surprise to everyone else that Chris and Zane dislike Kel based on their answers at the challenge. On top of that, it is interesting to note that opinions are split between Chris and Jeff in "who mistakenly thinks they are in control of the game". I see a power struggle happening right now. Chris and Zane might join up with Laura and Allie during this vote. If Chris is successful in getting the HII from Jeff, Jeff's alliance will be in trouble.

However, I do not think Jeff would be giving up the HII that easily to Chris and it will definitely raise suspicions. Somehow, Julia might be the key in Chris overthrowing Jeff. If her distaste towards Kel dictates her move in this game, she might as well just decide to jump aboard with Chris and Zane. If that happens, Chris will probably be the biggest villain of this season.

Pre-Jurors

Confirmed:


Missed:




Jurors

Confirmed:

Missed:



Remaining Predictions:





Final Tribal Council





Winner







My Personal Top 5 Favourites
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